All strategy breakdowns
Every breakdown on this page follows a real trader's wallet on Polymarket, not a hypothetical. That means you'll see the actual entry price, the actual position size, and — just as important — the actual reasoning a trader gave (or that we could reconstruct) at the time they placed the bet. Some of these are simple: a trader saw the market overreact to a headline and faded it. Others involve stacking multiple related markets, hedging a position as new information came in, or scaling into a long-shot over weeks. We add new case studies roughly weekly as trades come across that are worth studying in depth.
Frequently asked questions
Are these trader strategies guaranteed to work?
No. Every breakdown here describes what a specific trader did in a specific market — it's a case study, not a promise. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss, and past results don't predict future ones.
How much capital do I need to start trading strategies like these?
There's no fixed minimum — several breakdowns here start from a few dollars. What matters more than starting size is understanding the mechanics of the specific market before you size up.
What does "fading the headline" mean?
It means betting against the market's reaction to dramatic news, on the view that headline-driven fear or excitement is often overpriced relative to the actual odds of the outcome.
What's the biggest risk with strategy-following?
Copying a strategy without understanding why it worked in that specific market. The same setup can lose money in a different context — these breakdowns explain the reasoning, not just the result.
New breakdowns, roughly weekly.
No email list yet — just check back. We write these up as soon as a trade is worth studying.